recession.fyi

Terms of Use

Last Updated: December 11, 2025

Acceptance of Terms

By accessing or using recession.fyi (the "Site"), you agree to be bound by these Terms of Use. If you do not agree to these terms, please do not use the Site.

Nature of Service

recession.fyi provides:

• A statistical model estimating US recession probability
• Real-time tracking of economic indicators
• Educational content about economic analysis
• Historical data and visualizations

recession.fyi does NOT provide:

• Financial advice or recommendations
• Investment management services
• Guarantees or warranties about economic outcomes
• Professional economic consulting

No Financial Advice

The information on recession.fyi is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered:

• Professional financial advice
• Investment recommendations
• A basis for making financial decisions
• A guarantee of future economic outcomes

You should consult with qualified financial advisors, accountants, or other professionals before making any financial decisions.

Model Limitations and Accuracy

The recession probability model:

• Is not perfect: Can produce false positives and false negatives
• Timing uncertainty: Signals may precede recessions by 6-18 months or not at all
• Historical basis: Based on past patterns that may not repeat
• Cannot predict: Black swan events, policy changes, or external shocks

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Data Accuracy

While we strive for accuracy, we make no warranties about:

• Completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of data
• Availability or uninterrupted access to the Site
• Freedom from errors, bugs, or technical issues
• Accuracy of third-party data sources (FRED, Federal Reserve)

Use at Your Own Risk

You acknowledge and agree that:

• Use of recession.fyi is entirely at your own risk
• Any reliance on information from the Site is at your sole discretion
• You are responsible for evaluating the accuracy and completeness of information
• You will not hold us liable for any losses or damages arising from use of the Site

Limitation of Liability

To the maximum extent permitted by law:

• The Site is provided "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE"
• We disclaim all warranties, express or implied
• We are not liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages
• This includes damages from lost profits, data loss, or business interruption
• Even if we've been advised of the possibility of such damages

User Conduct

You agree NOT to:

• Use the Site for illegal purposes
• Attempt to hack, scrape, or reverse-engineer the Site
• Overload servers with excessive automated requests
• Misrepresent yourself or impersonate others
• Distribute malware or viruses
• Violate any applicable laws or regulations

Fair Use of Data

You may:

• View and use the Site for personal, non-commercial purposes
• Share links to the Site on social media or websites
• Screenshot or cite data with proper attribution

You may NOT:

• Systematically scrape or download large amounts of data
• Resell or redistribute our data commercially
• Present our analysis as your own work
• Use our API (if implemented) beyond rate limits

Intellectual Property

recession.fyi is open source under the MIT License. You may:

• View, fork, and modify the source code
• Run your own instance of the software
• Contribute improvements via pull requests

Economic data is sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve) and is in the public domain. Our analysis, design, and documentation are © 2025 recession.fyi.

Third-Party Links

The Site may contain links to third-party websites (FRED, Federal Reserve, etc.). We:

• Do not control or endorse these sites
• Are not responsible for their content or policies
• Recommend reviewing their terms and privacy policies

Modification of Service

We reserve the right to:

• Modify, suspend, or discontinue the Site at any time
• Update indicators, weights, or methodology
• Change features, pricing (if applicable), or terms
• Without prior notice or liability

Termination

We may terminate or suspend your access to the Site:

• For violation of these Terms
• For abusive behavior (hacking, scraping, etc.)
• At our sole discretion, with or without notice

Indemnification

You agree to indemnify and hold harmless recession.fyi, its developers, and contributors from any claims, damages, or expenses arising from:

• Your use of the Site
• Your violation of these Terms
• Your violation of any laws or third-party rights

Governing Law

These Terms are governed by the laws of the United States. Any disputes shall be resolved in accordance with US law, without regard to conflict of law principles.

Severability

If any provision of these Terms is found invalid or unenforceable, the remaining provisions shall remain in full force and effect.

Entire Agreement

These Terms, along with our Privacy Policy, constitute the entire agreement between you and recession.fyi regarding use of the Site.

Changes to Terms

We may update these Terms occasionally. Changes will be posted on this page with an updated "Last Updated" date. Continued use after changes constitutes acceptance of the new terms.

Contact

Questions about these Terms? Please reach out through the contact channels listed on our About page.