About recession.fyi
recession.fyi is a real-time recession probability monitoring system that tracks 13 key economic indicators to assess the likelihood of a US recession within the next 12 months.
Why We Built This
Economic recessions don't happen overnight. They're preceded by warning signals across multiple sectors of the economy - labor markets, credit markets, housing, manufacturing, and consumer sentiment. However, tracking all these signals requires monitoring dozens of data sources and understanding complex economic relationships.
recession.fyi aggregates these signals into a single, easy-to-understand probability score, updated multiple times daily with the latest economic data.
What We Track
Core Economic Indicators (60% weight):
- Yield Curve (10Y-2Y spread) - Most reliable historical predictor
- Leading Economic Index - Composite measure of future activity
- Unemployment Claims - Labor market health
- Manufacturing PMI - Real economy production
Housing Market (15% weight):
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index - Housing values
- Housing Starts - New construction activity
- 30-Year Mortgage Rates - Housing affordability
Credit Markets (12% weight):
- High Yield Corporate Bond Spread - Credit stress indicator
- Investment Grade Bond Spread - Corporate borrowing costs
Supporting Indicators (13% weight):
- Consumer Confidence - Spending sentiment
- VIX (Market Volatility) - Investor fear gauge
Data Sources
All economic data comes from trusted, authoritative sources:
- FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) - Primary data source for all 13 indicators
- Federal Reserve - Official press releases and economic announcements
- Data updates occur 3 times daily during market hours (weekdays only)
How It Works
Our algorithm follows a three-step process:
- Data Collection: Automatically fetch latest values for all 13 indicators from FRED API
- Risk Scoring: Each indicator receives a risk score (0-100) based on historical recession thresholds
- Weighted Probability: Combine individual scores using research-backed weights to produce final probability
For detailed methodology, see our Methodology page.
Limitations & Disclaimers
⚠️ Important: recession.fyi is an educational tool, not financial advice.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Recession timing is inherently uncertain
- Models can produce false positives and false negatives
- Always consult qualified financial professionals for investment decisions
Open & Transparent
We believe in transparency:
- All data sources are publicly accessible
- Our methodology is fully documented
- Indicator weights are clearly disclosed
- All calculations are transparent and reproducible
About the Creator
recession.fyi was built as an independent project to make economic data more accessible to everyone. It was developed using modern web technologies and automated data collection systems to provide timely, accurate recession probability assessments.
Contact & Feedback
Have questions, suggestions, or feedback? We'd love to hear from you. For inquiries, please reach out through our social media channels or contact form.
Updates & Roadmap
We're continuously improving recession.fyi:
- ✅ Phase 1-10: Complete (13 indicators, automated updates)
- 🚧 Future: ML-enhanced predictions, historical backtesting, alert system
- 💡 We're always looking to improve based on user feedback